Invasion

On February 24, at 5:30am Moscow time (02:30 GMT) Russian state television channels were interrupted to broadcast an address by President Vladimir Putin announcing a “special military operation” in the Donbas region. Russian forces attacked the northern, eastern and southern fronts of Ukraine with air, land and sea attacks. Explosions were heard in many cities about 5:00am local time (03:00 GMT). The war has so far killed at least 4,183 people, and more than 5,014 have been injured, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCR). The real number is likely to be much higher. More than 7.7 million people have fled Ukraine during the war so far . Global food and fuel prices have risen, airspace over Ukraine has closed blocking a important air route. Russia has faced unprecedented international sanctions. In the first 10 days of the conflict alone more than 1.2 million people fled Ukraine for neighboring countries.

The south-eastern port city of Mariupol has endured some of the most intense fighting during the war. Now under Russian control the attacks on civilian just got worse-from the bombing of a maternity hospital on March 9 to an air raid on the Donetsk Regional Drama Theatre on March 16 both have devastated the city and its people. The Kremlin views the port city of Mariupol as a bridge to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Aside from establishing a land corridor, the strategic relevance of Mariupol is also rooted in suppressing Ukraine’s economy. The port is a key export hub for Ukraine’s corn, coal and steel.

On May 1, about 100 civilians were evacuated from the plant, after the United Nations and International Red Cross negotiated a deal to extract non-combatants from the site.

On May 17, Ukrainian soldiers at the steel plant surrendered - 260 Ukrainian fighters were evacuated following the months-long siege. Many of the soldiers were wounded and taken to a Russian-controlled hospital in Novoazovsk. For many, Azovstal steelworks became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance against the Russian invasion.

In a long speech full of diatribes against the U.S. and its allies, Putin accused the U.S. and its allies of trying to dictate their terms to other nations in a “dangerous, bloody and dirty” domination game. Putin, who sent his troops to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24, has cast Western support for Ukraine as part of broad efforts by the US and its allies to enforce its will upon others through what they call a rules-based world order. He argued that the world has reached a turning point, when “the West is no longer able to dictate its will to the humankind but still tries to do it, and the majority of nations no longer want to tolerate it.” Russian President Vladimir Putin denied having any intentions of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine but described the conflict there as part of alleged efforts by the West to secure its global domination, which he insisted are doomed to fail. Speaking at a conference of international foreign policy experts, Putin said it’s pointless for Russia to strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons.

Vladimir Putin appointed Surovikin as the overall commander of Russia’s so-called special military operation, to the delight of Moscow’s hawks. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov praised Surovikin as “a real general and a warrior.” He will “improve the situation,” Kadyrov added in a social media post. But reversing a series of stunning battlefield Ukrainian victories and shifting the tide of the war may be beyond even the ruthless Surovikin. Ukrainians have shown throughout the year they’re made of stern stuff and aren’t going to be intimidated by war crimes.

Ukraine’s defence minister is confident that Kyiv will eventually obtain Western tanks and fighter planes to help push Russian forces out of his country but thinks the US will have to lead the way before its allies will follow. “I’m really optimistic that Abrams tanks are possible in the future, and I am sure that fighter jets like F-16s, F-15s, or Gripen from Sweden will also be possible,” Oleksii Reznikov said in a wide-ranging interview about the state of the war and rebuilding the Ukrainian defence industry. Soon after he was appointed defence minister last November, Reznikov came to Washington and asked for Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, but was told “no, it’s impossible,” he said. “I asked them why. The answer was because it’s forbidden by the law … and political issues. Then in January, a month before the invasion, we got our first package from Lithuania. It was the Stingers, and we got it with permission from the United States. So for me, it’s an example that if you hear it’s impossible, it means it will be possible in the future.”

Ukrainian leaders believe that, despite dissident notes from some on the far right, a fully or partially GOP-led Congress won’t skimp on giving Kyiv military aid. In fact, Ukraine expects “even more robust” weapons packages if Republicans are in charge, said Daniel Vajdich, a lobbyist for the Ukrainian government. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his aides know “there may be some different challenges than existed before” in a post-midterm world, Vajdich said. “There’s a recognition in Kyiv that they’re going to have to work with Republicans to help them understand that support for Ukraine can’t just be about guns.” That means money to erase Ukraine’s budget deficit, and to underwrite the energy sector and other civil services such as schools. Through broad bipartisan support in Congress, Ukrainian government has obtained major packages of weapons, including the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. Led by Zelenskyy, the Ukrainians have often turned to U.S. lawmakers to press the Biden administration on specific weapons systems, in particular long-range missiles (though the White House has so far refused to supply those missiles and some of the other weapons Ukraine wants). It’s a tactic that has caused some friction between the Ukrainians and the Biden administration, according to former U.S. officials. It’s one that the Ukrainians could, in theory, turn to even more if Republicans control all or part of Congress and want to beat up on Biden, a Democrat. But it doesn’t always work.